CAGR ke niyam: ye number kab sahi, kab gumrah karta hai
CAGR ka pehla niyam hai — ye keval ek shuruaat aur ek ant wale nivesh ke liye bana hai: ek rakam lagi, beech me kuch na jama hua na nikla, aur ant me ek rakam mili. Beech me baar-baar paisa dalne wale nivesh — jaise SIP — ke liye CAGR sahi auzaar nahi; waha XIRR istemal hota hai, jo har jama ki tareekh ko gin-ta hai. Dusra niyam: CAGR beech ke utaar-chadh ko saaf karke ek seedhi dar dikhata hai. Do nivesh ka CAGR barabar ho sakta hai, lekin ek ne beech me 30% ki giravat di ho aur dusre ne shaant badhotari — jokhim ka ye fark CAGR kabhi nahi batata.
Teesra niyam samay ka hai. Ek saal ke tez uchhal ko CAGR me badal kar dikhana sabse aam chaal hai: 6 mahine me 20% badhne ka matlab ye nahi ki har saal wahi hoga. Bharose layak tulna ke liye kam se kam 3-5 saal, aur ho sake to 7-10 saal ki avadhi dekhein. Aur haan, nakaratmak (negative) shuruaat ya beech ke nakaratmak varsho par CAGR ka formula seedha kaam nahi karta — waha keval kul labh-haani dekhna hi sahi hai.
Ek vyavharik baat: koi bhi fund ya share apna purana CAGR dikhaye, to ye zaroor poochein ki avadhi kaun si hai. "5 saal ka CAGR" aur "shuruaat se CAGR" me zameen-aasmaan ka fark ho sakta hai, kyunki shuruaat wala saal chunna sabse aasan hera-pheri hai.
🧮 Ek aur hisab: ₹2.4 lakh se ₹5.1 lakh, 7 saal me
Maan lijiye ek nivesh ₹2,40,000 se badh kar 7 saal me ₹5,10,000 ho gaya. Kul badhotari ₹2,70,000 hai, matlab rakam 2.125 guna hui. CAGR = (5,10,000 ÷ 2,40,000)^(1/7) − 1 = 11.37%. Ab is number ka sahi istemal dekhiye: agar usi avadhi me kisi dusri yojana ne 9% CAGR diya ho, to ye nivesh aage raha — lekin agar isne beech me ek saal −25% ka jhatka diya ho aur dusri ne nahi, to shaant neend kisne di, ye bhi faisle ka hissa hai. CAGR tulna shuru karne ka number hai, faisla khatam karne ka nahi.